Is it 2010 All Over Again? Why BC’s Current "Quiet" Market is a Wake-Up Call for Buyers

If you’ve been watching the news lately, you’ve probably seen the headlines: "Record numbers of unsold homes sitting on the market." On the surface, it sounds like there’s no rush to buy. But if we look at the data from the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), we’re actually seeing a classic case of déjà vu—and it’s a pattern that previously led to a massive spike in home prices.The Lesson from the 2010s Think back to the years right after the 2008 financial crisis. Sales were slow and inventory was high, so developers stopped building. For about six years, BC barely added any new homes.The problem? Demand eventually "roared" back, but because we hadn’t been building, there was nothing for people to buy. That imbalance caused prices to jump 47% between 2010 and 2019. We are seeing those exact same warning signs today.The "Pre-Sale Gap" and Why it Matters to You You might wonder why developers don’t just keep building if they know demand will return. It comes down to a simple rule: The 70% Hurdle.Most banks won’t give a developer a cent to start construction until they’ve already pre-sold about 65% to 70% of the building. Right now, because many buyers are "waiting and seeing," those pre-sales have cratered.The result? Projects are being cancelled or delayed across Metro Vancouver right now. This creates a "void" in the future. The homes that should have been ready in 2028 or 2030 won't exist because they didn't start today.The Road Ahead: What the Numbers Say According to BCREA’s latest model, here is what the next few years look like:

• 2026: We expect the current pile of unsold homes to hit its peak.
• 2027: This is likely the "turning point" where inventory starts to drop as demand returns to normal levels.
• Late 2020s: This is where the "supply gap" hits. Because so many projects are being cancelled now, there will be very few new completions coming online.
• By 2032: If we don’t fix this supply gap, prices are forecasted to rise by as much as 27% (after adjusting for inflation).

The Bottom Line The "record inventory" we see in the news today is the very supply that will be gone once the market picks up. We are already seeing multiple offers returning to prime locations—a clear sign that the "quiet" period is ending.Waiting for the "perfect time" usually means waiting until everyone else has jumped back in and the best options are already gone. If you’re looking to get ahead of the next cycle, now—while there is still inventory to choose from—is the time to have a conversation.

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Source: Market Intelligence: Déjà Vu: BC Housing Market Risks Repeating the 2010s, BCREA Economics, January 2026."Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission."